Is There Really a Truck Driver Shortage in the USA?

The question of whether America faces a genuine truck driver shortage has become one of the most contentious debates in the logistics industry. Depending on who you ask, the answer ranges from “absolutely” to “it’s a complete myth.”

With over 70% of all U.S. freight moved by trucks, the stakes couldn’t be higher. So what’s the truth? The answer is far more nuanced than a simple yes or no.

The Case FOR a Driver Shortage

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) has long championed the shortage narrative, and their data paints a concerning picture.

The Numbers Behind the Claim

In 2021, the ATA estimated the industry was short upward of 80,000 drivers, projecting that the gap could balloon to 160,000 by 2030 if trends continued. More recently, the ATA has revised its estimate to a shortfall of roughly 60,000 drivers.

ATA President and CEO Chris Spear has told Congress that “over the next decade, trucking companies will need to hire roughly 1.2 million new drivers to keep pace with growing freight demand and an aging workforce”.

The workforce is indeed aging over 31% of truck drivers are now over 55, and millions of retirements are expected in the coming years.

A “Quality” Problem, Not a “Quantity” Problem

Industry leaders now frame the issue as a shortage of qualified drivers rather than a lack of people with commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs).

As ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello explained, “What we have in the United States is a quality problem around drivers, much more so than an absolute number”.

The qualification gap stems from:

• Drug and alcohol testing failures
• Accident histories that disqualify candidates
• English language proficiency requirements that may disqualify non-native speakers

Some estimates suggest that as many as 10% of truck drivers could fall short of required English proficiency levels, and about 4% of U.S. truck drivers do not have valid CDLs.

Policy Concerns

Recent regulatory enforcement has intensified the quality shortage. The FMCSA has tightened scrutiny on English language proficiency and non-domiciled drivers, potentially removing a significant portion of the workforce.

Industry analysts predict this could create a “free for all” for qualified drivers, leading to rapidly increasing turnover, new signing bonuses, and higher wages.

The Case AGAINST a Driver Shortage

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) and numerous academic researchers argue that the “shortage” is a myth and they have the data to back it up.

It’s a Retention Crisis, Not a Shortage

OOIDA Executive Vice President Lewie Pugh puts it bluntly: “There’s no driver shortage. There’s never been a driver shortage. That’s a myth. When you have a 90% turnover rate, you don’t have a shortage”.

Large truckload carriers consistently experience annual turnover rates of 90% or higher. By contrast, less-than-truckload carriers, which typically offer better pay and working conditions, experience turnover rates of only 10% to 15%.

If there were a genuine labor shortage, basic economics would dictate that wages and conditions would improve to attract and retain workers but that hasn’t happened at scale.

The CDL Pipeline Is Full

Here’s a staggering statistic: Over 400,000 new CDLs are issued every single year in the United States. The FMCSA also records 1.7 million active CDL holders far more than the number of seats needing filling.

“If you think there’s a shortage, explain to me why there’s 400,000-plus new CDLs issued in this country every single year. Where do all these people go?” Pugh asks. The answer: they leave the industry because of poor conditions.

The Real Problem: Poor Working Conditions

Drivers cite numerous reasons for leaving:

• Pay by the mile rather than hourly, often resulting in uncompensated waiting time
• Weeks away from home with limited work-life balance
• A nationwide shortage of truck parking
• Denied restroom access at shipper and receiver facilities
• No overtime pay despite working 70-hour weeks

Pugh argues: “Who wants to come out here and give away 20 hours of free labor every week, try to find a safe place to park every night, not get paid overtime despite working 70 hours a week and missing your family?”

Academic Research Supports the Myth Theory

Multiple independent studies have refuted the shortage claim:

• A 2024 National Academies of Sciences study concluded that the idea of a driver shortage contradicts basic economic principles of supply and demand
• A 2023 study by economics professor Stephen V. Burks found no evidence of a driver shortage
• The U.S. Department of Labor published a study concluding that any labor supply issues could be corrected by increasing wages

OOIDA Foundation’s white paper, “The Churn,” traces high turnover back to the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which deregulated the industry and made high turnover a standard business strategy. Intense competition restricts carriers from raising wages significantly without losing business, embedding churn as the operating model.

The Current State: A Shift in the Debate

The Freight Recession Changes Everything

Since 2022, the trucking industry has been mired in a “freight recession” a prolonged downturn in demand and freight volumes. Total trucking employment has continued to fall amid layoffs, market exits, and bankruptcies.

For the first time in the American Transportation Research Institute’s 21-year history of tracking industry concerns, the driver shortage fell out of the Top 10 in 2025, landing at No. 12. The economy now ranks as the industry’s top concern.

The Wage Paradox

Despite the freight recession, driver wages have actually shown some upward movement. Per-mile pay growth in summer 2025 saw its strongest gains since late 2022. ATA’s Chris Spear has pointed to a 19% increase in driver pay amid the recession as evidence that a shortage does exist.

However, OOIDA counters that a Spring 2025 survey found 50.6% of drivers had not received a pay raise in the past two years, despite rising inflation. And while wages have increased for some, the turnover crisis persists: 91% of drivers reported being contacted at least once a week by recruiters from other carriers.

A Mismatch Problem

Some analysts suggest the issue isn’t shortage or surplus, but mismatch. Over 400,000 CDLs are issued annually, yet carriers struggle to find drivers who match their specific needs whether that’s bilingual drivers for border operations, drivers willing to work flatbed in harsh conditions, or younger drivers comfortable with modern equipment.

The Bottom Line

Is there really a truck driver shortage in the USA?

The honest answer is: not in the way it’s typically portrayed.

There is no shortage of people with CDLs. There is no shortage of people willing to try trucking. What exists is a retention crisis driven by low pay, poor working conditions, and a business model that treats drivers as disposable.

As OOIDA puts it: “Only by understanding the systemic and structural reasons for churn can industry and policymakers begin to allow genuine market forces to work toward a more sustainable equilibrium one where driving a truck is a viable, even desirable long-term occupation, not a grueling trial with razor-thin margins that one endures only until a better opportunity comes along”.

However, this doesn’t mean the industry is out of the woods. An aging workforce, regulatory crackdowns, and the eventual end of the freight recession could rapidly tighten capacity.

When the freight market rebounds, the industry may face very real constraints if it hasn’t addressed its fundamental retention problems.

The debate isn’t going away anytime soon but one thing is clear: whether you call it a shortage or a retention crisis, the trucking industry faces a serious challenge that won’t be solved by simply recruiting more drivers.

It requires treating the people who keep America’s supply chain moving with the dignity, pay, and respect they deserve.